Opinion: This piece reflects the view of ConnellWA.com.

Vote yes on I-645. Washington's new income tax was rushed through in the last days of a short session and walled off from a public vote. It rests on revenue guesses that keep changing, and it runs straight into a 93-year-old Supreme Court ruling that says the state can't do this. We call that corrupt, mismanaged and unconstitutional, and I-645 is the only chance to stop it before a single payment comes due. Ballots are due by 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Here's what's at stake. In 2024 the Legislature passed Initiative 2111, banning state and local taxes on individual income. Two years later, lawmakers passed Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, which carves itself out of that ban and imposes a 9.9% tax on individual income above $1 million starting Jan. 1, 2028. I-645 repeals the tax and writes the ban back into law for the state, counties and cities alike.

Unconstitutional: The courts have already said no

Washingtonians have been here before. In 1932 voters approved a state income tax, and in 1933 the state Supreme Court threw it out in Culliton v. Chase. The court held that income is property and that the state constitution requires property to be taxed at a uniform rate. That ruling has never been overturned. Courts relied on the same principle when they struck down Seattle's income tax on high earners in 2019, KUOW reported.

The tax's backers know this. The bill's lead author, Sen. Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle, says Culliton was wrongly decided, and Democratic leaders are betting the Supreme Court will overturn it, Axios reported. In March, the House rejected, 46-49, an amendment that would have made the tax contingent on voters first amending the constitution to allow it, according to the Washington State Standard. Rather than change the constitution, they passed the tax and are counting on the courts to change the law.

The challenge is already in court. In April, a lawsuit was filed in Klickitat County Superior Court arguing that the tax violates the uniformity requirement. The plaintiffs include a builder and a marketing-business owner who would owe the tax, along with the Yakima Klickitat Farm Association, the Building Industry Association of Washington and the National Federation of Independent Business. Washington shouldn't build its budget on a bet against its own Supreme Court.

Corrupt: A process designed to keep voters out

We use "corrupt" to describe how this law was made, not to accuse anyone of a crime. In our view, the process bent the rules of representative government to avoid the people's judgment.

Look at the record. Republicans said new provisions made public the Friday before the House vote left no time to vet them, and their motion to set the bill aside failed on a party-line 58-38 vote. The House passed it 51-46 on March 10 after more than 24 hours of nonstop floor debate, two days before the end of the 60-day session, and eight Democrats voted no. The Senate signed off the next day.

Lawmakers also attached a "necessity clause" declaring the tax necessary to support state government, a move that blocks a citizen referendum. They voted down an amendment that would have sent the tax to the November ballot. When Let's Go Washington asked the state Supreme Court to allow a referendum anyway, the court ruled in May that the law falls under that exception and is not subject to referendum. That ruling did not address whether the tax itself is constitutional.

The result: to get a say, opponents had to gather more than 300,000 signatures for an initiative, double what a referendum requires, according to the Washington State Standard. Washington voters have rejected an income tax 10 times since 1934, most recently in 2010 by a 64%-36% margin. This time, lawmakers made sure voters couldn't simply refer it to the ballot.

Mismanaged: Spending money that doesn't exist

This tax was sold as the answer to a budget mess, and the budget is still a mess. In 2025, Gov. Bob Ferguson's office described closing a "$16 billion budget hole," and the state then faced another shortfall in the supplemental budget. In September, the Washington State Standard reported that the latest revenue forecast won't erase a several-hundred-million-dollar deficit in the 2028 fiscal year or make a dent in the multibillion-dollar shortfall expected in the next budget. That is the third straight year lawmakers face a shortfall. Senate Ways and Means Chair June Robinson, D-Everett, said, "I think we need to find ways to reduce current spending so that we can balance in fiscal year 2028."

Meanwhile, the state is already planning around money it hasn't collected. The bill pledges income tax proceeds to expand the Working Families Tax Credit and earmarks 5% for child care and early learning starting in 2029. The official fiscal impact statement also lists free school meals and transfers to local governments as intended uses. And the September forecast's boost for the next budget comes mainly from the income tax, which won't produce a dime until 2029, and only if it survives the courts and the ballot. "Much of the predicted increase comes with an asterisk," said Sen. Chris Gildon, R-Puyallup, the Senate Republicans' lead budget writer.

The estimates themselves keep moving:

• When the bill passed, the state assumed about 21,000 filers and $2.7 billion for the 2027-29 budget.
• Over the summer, the Department of Revenue raised that to $3.1 billion.
• In September, the state's chief economist projected $3.5 billion for 2027-29 and $9.4 billion for 2029-31, and he estimates 25,000 filers in the first year.

Those numbers could go up or down again in November. A budget built on figures that change every few months isn't a plan. It's a gamble.

Nobody has paid this tax. Keep it that way.

No estimated payments are required for 2028, so the first checks wouldn't be due until April 2029, according to the Office of Financial Management. A yes vote doesn't take a dime from any school, clinic or program that is funded today. "How can you call something a tax break," Yes on I-645 campaign chair Steve Gordon asked in an interview with The Seattle Times, "when there's no tax being collected?"

That's why the No campaign's "$13 billion tax break" line doesn't hold up. A Seattle Times fact-check found the figure stacks four years of projected collections, 2029 through 2032, into one number. The paper warned that leaving out the four-year window "could create the misleading impression" that the tax would raise $13 billion a year. The state's own fiscal impact statement estimates about $11.4 billion over fiscal years 2027 through 2031, and two of those years would collect nothing at all.

You keep the tax cuts

I-645 leaves the companion tax cuts in place: reduced taxes for small businesses, expanded rebates for low- and middle-income households, and no more sales tax on diapers, over-the-counter medicines and personal hygiene products. You keep every one of those and drop the income tax. The nonpartisan House Office of Program Research summary says I-645 also bars the state and local governments from taxing individual income. It defines "income" as "any gain or benefit measured in money derived from an individual's capital, labor, property, or other source." If approved, it takes effect Dec. 3, 2026.

A $1 million threshold today. What about tomorrow?

Former U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who works with the Yes campaign, wrote in The Spokesman-Review that lawmakers rejected "multiple attempts" to permanently keep the $1 million threshold from being lowered. If the line is meant to stay put, why not lock it in? A law that was written to keep voters out shouldn't be trusted to keep its own limits.

The other side's case, and why it falls short

Opponents say repeal would cut money for schools and health care, and that Gov. Ferguson has pledged to veto any attempt to lower the threshold while he is in office.

But the cuts they warn about come from money that has never been collected, from estimates that keep changing, for a tax facing a court precedent that has stood for 93 years. The real budget problem, as the state's own forecasts show, is spending that has outrun revenue three years running. And a governor's pledge expires when his term does. The protections in I-645 would be written into law.

Washington has said no to an income tax 10 times. Make it 11. Vote yes on I-645.

Where to drop your ballot

Ballots must be in an official drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day or postmarked by Election Day if mailed. In Connell, a 24-hour drive-up drop box is at the Connell PUD Shop, 619 W. Clark St. Franklin County also has drop boxes in Pasco, Mesa and Kahlotus, and Benton County lists locations in Kennewick, Richland, West Richland, Prosser and Benton City. Voters can track their ballots at VoteWA.gov.

Sources

• Washington House Office of Program Research – Summary of Initiative 26-645 (Aug. 21, 2026)
• Office of Financial Management – Fiscal Impact Statement for Initiative 645
• Washington Attorney General – I-645 ballot title and summary
• Washington Legislature – SB 6346 bill history
• Washington State Standard – After marathon debate, WA House advances income tax (March 10, 2026)
• Washington Supreme Court – Order, No. 105220-1 (May 4, 2026)
• KUOW – New lawsuit challenges constitutionality of Washington's 'millionaires tax' (April 9, 2026)
• Washington State Standard – WA revenue officials: Income tax will bring in more money than first expected (Aug. 12, 2026)
• Tri-Cities Area Journal of Business / Washington State Standard – With tax receipts flat, budget hurdles remain for WA leaders (Sept. 2026)
• Washington State Standard – Debate underlines deep divisions on what WA voters should do about income tax (Oct. 8, 2026)
• Office of Gov. Bob Ferguson – Governor Ferguson announces supplemental budget (2025)
• The Seattle Times – Is I-645 a '$13 billion tax break' for millionaires and billionaires? (Oct. 21, 2026)
• Axios Seattle – Washington's new income tax faces a repeal vote under I-645 (Oct. 15, 2026)
• The Spokesman-Review – Jaime Herrera Beutler and Jennie Wagner: Initiative 645 (opinion, Oct. 18, 2026)
• Franklin County – Ballot Drop Box Locations
• Benton County – Drop Boxes
• Tip (not a news source): DarkHorse / Bret Weinstein – "Washington's Income Tax Repeal Isn't a Tax Cut" (YouTube)